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Topic: Parity in the MAC

Topic: Parity in the MAC

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L.C.
General User

Member Since: 8/31/2005
Location: United States
Post Count: 10,470

Status: Offline

Parity in the MAC

Posted: 2/7/2019 4:13:23 PM

There are two ways to look at MAC recruiting rankings. One way is based on the total points, by which method, schools with a large class look good, and ones with a small class look bad. The other way is based on the average rank of the players. Obviously both are important, for the purposes on this post, I'll use the latter. This year the average ranking of MAC recruiting classes, using the 247Sports Composite (which factors in Rivals and ESPN ratings) were:

Toledo 83.10
Ohio 81.29
WMU 81.24
Miami 80.76
NIU 80.72
Kent 80.57
Ball St 80.01
CMU 79.95
Buffalo 79.94
Akron 79.11
BG 78.97
EMU 78.80

Just because you can do a mathematical average, and compute it to 4 digits, that doesn't mean you have four digits of accuracy. As iffy at ratings are, at best you have 1, maybe two digits of accuracy. That makes the ratings really:
83: Toledo
82:
81: Ohio, WMU, Miami, NIU, Kent
80: Ball St, CMU, Buffalo
79: Akron, BG, EMU

Toledo seems a bit higher than everyone else, but other than that, there is almost complete parity in MAC recruiting. Among the P5, only the ACC has much in terms of parity:
SEC: 10 point differential, 94 (Alabama) to 84 (Vandy)
B1G: 8 point differential, 92 (Ohio St) to 84 (Rutgers)
Big 12: 8 point differential, 92 (Texas) to 84 (Kansas St)
PAC 12: 7 point differential, 91 (Oregon) to 84 (Oregon St)
ACC: 5 point differential, 90 (Clemson) to 85 (Wake Forest)

Among the G5, most conferences have more parity, other than the MWC:
MWC: 8 point differential (4 without Boise), 86 (Boise) to 78 (Air Force)
AAC: 5 point differential, 84 (UCF) to 79 (Navy)
SBC: 4 point differential, 82 (Louisiana) to 78 (Coastal Carolina)
CUSA: 4 point differential, 82 (NTSU) to 78 (UTEP)
MAC: 4 point differential (2 without Toledo), 83 (Toledo) to 79 (EMU)

In most conferences, the spread would tighten by one point if you eliminated an outlier team, but in the MWC Boise State has a 4 point lead over the 2d place team, while in the MAC Toledo has a 2 point lead. Amazingly, all of the MAC is within 2 points, except for Toledo.

Interestingly, I see that the top G5 teams are typically slightly below the bottom P5 teams. Low P5 teams like Vandy and Rutgers are 84, and high G5 teams like Toledo, NTSU, and Louisiana are in the 82-83 range, though Boise St and UCF are a shade higher.

“We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.” ― Epictetus

TWT
General User

Member Since: 12/20/2004
Location: Alexandria, VA
Post Count: 5,089

Status: Offline

RE: Parity in the MAC

Posted: 2/9/2019 12:26:15 AM

In the G5 there is old guard programs AFA, Navy and UTEP down at the bottom of the recruiting rankings while FCS long ago upgrades UNT, Louisiana, Boise and UCF are at the top. This shows that over time G5's continue to improve and reach their recruiting potential. The close numbers between the top 1/3 and the bottom 1/3 P5 mean there isn't much of a talent differential. What differential there is negligible to other factors (experience levels in each position unit) that can vary year-2-year. Go back to 1999 and maybe 4-5 G5 programs (Utah, BYU, TCU, Louisville, Southern Miss) were borderline P5 talent but everyone else was significantly below, most of them weaker than than the weakest of today.

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