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Topic: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Topic: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

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Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 5/31/2024 9:45:08 PM

Thoughts?

An analysis of all 134 win totals makes it possible to back out a power rating that is best consistent with the predicted opponents. I didn't do that. I saw the analysis from Joshua Davis. But I took his power rating to get the winning chance in each game.

Syracuse 13%
South Alabama 49%
Morgan St 99%
Kentucky 4%
Akron 84%
C Michigan 51%
Miami OH 23%
Buffalo 74%
Kent 81%
E Michigan 77%
Toledo 27%
Ball St 71%

Those percentages sum to 6.5 wins which, of course, they have to because the win total was used to get the power rating instead of the other way around.

This also puts us at about #97 in the FBS.
That's nowhere near out USAT rating which I think is ridiculously optimistic. But it is better than OUr SP+ of 112. Massey has #95.

Last Edited: 5/31/2024 9:47:25 PM by Victory

L.C.
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/1/2024 7:07:56 AM

The Vegas-implied odds look as reasonable as any guess could be. With all the turnover, it seems to me that Ohio could end up with anything from about 3 wins to about 9, and I'm hoping for 6 or better. The coaches, obviously, want to win at least 8. We'll see if they can do it.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

ctb
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/2/2024 1:46:13 PM

I'm guessing either 7-5 or 8-4.

Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/8/2024 7:37:09 PM

MAC futures

Miami-Ohio Redhawks +230
Toledo Rockets +290
Northern Illinois Huskies +600
Bowling Green Falcons +800
Ohio Bobcats +950
Western Michigan Broncos +1000
Central Michigan Chippewas +1700
Eastern Michigan Eagles +2200
Buffalo Bulls +2800
Ball State Cardinals +3000
Akron Zips +10000
Kent State Golden Flashes +10000

spongeBOB CATpants
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Member Since: 8/16/2016
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/10/2024 4:06:36 PM

Victory wrote:

I'm still kicking myself for not taking Miami +700 last year. +950 for the Cats is an easy smash for me, responsibly of course.

Chris Galloway
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Member Since: 12/20/2004
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/12/2024 11:29:42 AM

Feels like a 7-5 and return to the Bahamas Bowl type of year. Finish 8-5 after bowl game. Which based on the amount guys we lost is pretty good coaching having to integrate all the new faces.

Go Bobcats!

Pataskala
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/12/2024 5:10:34 PM

ctb wrote:

I'm guessing either 7-5 or 8-4.

I'm thinking 8-4 at best, maybe as low as 6-6. What should be our four toughest games are on the road: Syracuse, UK, MOFO and Toledo. I wouldn't be surprised if we lost them all. We're also at CMU, which always seems to have our number (last year was our first win vs them in long time). Kent always plays us tough at home, too, but we should still win. So we could go 1-5 on the road. The home schedule is a git softer, but just about every year we lose a home game that we should win. It's probably going to be a grind all year.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

FormerMember
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/17/2024 10:04:14 AM

Vegas is always playing tricks with their W/L totals. I entered the offseason thinking 7-8 wins but after all of the player movement, I'm thinking 6-7 wins.

6.5 is a smart preseason line. I'd probably take the under at the moment but still want the expectation to be making a bowl game.

Victory
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 6/17/2024 11:22:09 AM

FormerMember wrote:

This might be a 1-5 on the road and 5-1 at home type of season.

Victory
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/19/2024 1:45:53 PM

Board is pretty dead less than two months out. Throwing out a few more rankings.

ESPN FPI has Ohio 113.

Kelly Ford has us 107
https://x.com/KFordRatings/status/1807444018122404159/pho...

Ohio69
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/19/2024 4:35:50 PM

6.5 seems high to me after all the free agents cashing in and leaving for $$$. Gonna be a tough year me thinks.

Last Edited: 7/19/2024 4:36:11 PM by Ohio69

Can somebody hit a pull up jumper for me?.....

Victory
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/19/2024 4:56:45 PM

Ohio69 wrote:

6.5 seems high to me after all the free agents cashing in and leaving for $$$. Gonna be a tough year me thinks.

I know we are coming off of back-to-back 10 win seasons but I pretty much agree.
It seems that a lot of us look at 6.5 as low. Yes, this is the transfer portal era. Yes, a lot of turnover is now normal. It doesn't mean what happened to us is normal. The key number in looking at portal losses for a MAC team is not how many players transferred but how many transferred to power programs. 12 isn't normal at all. Does it seem like Pete Fiutak thinks it is normal?

https://collegefootballnews.com/news/ohio-college-footbal...

We rank 133 out of 134 FBS teams in SP+ ranking of returning production. Obviously, that isn't normal. If we were normal we'd be in the middle. Miami won the MAC last year and beat us in Athens and ranks 9th.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/insider/story/_/id/...

If you asked me if I would take a 6-6 season and a sixth straight bowl win then I'd say yes. If Albin can do that he did a good coaching job. Turnover will be normal but what happened this offseason is not. If we can do that this year I'll be pretty confident that Albin will have us in contention in most "normal" years.

Last Edited: 7/19/2024 4:57:37 PM by Victory

cbarber357
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/19/2024 6:43:19 PM

For some reason I am feeling an 8-5 or 9-4 after a bowl game this year.

Doc Bobcat
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/20/2024 7:27:30 AM

cbarber357 wrote:

For some reason I am feeling an 8-5 or 9-4 after a bowl game this year.

Me too!

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/22/2024 9:53:00 AM

Victory wrote:

FormerMember wrote:

This might be a 1-5 on the road and 5-1 at home type of season.

I think you're close.

The hardest thing to overcome, will be in games where people are pushing the tempo, throwing a lot and getting a lot of big TD's and chunk plays while we grind the game way down. Our margin for error is absolutely zero. Even last season with that team, we took zero chances, zero times did we push the tempo, every play was a grind, every play started with 0 on the play clock.

Maybe that was more Scott? Maybe they will play a little more fast and loose this season with Brian calling plays, and expectations being much lower...?

Good thing is the MAC is putrid, so while we won't be as good, it's possible OU won't be as bad as many think. I can see 7-8 wins, which would be great. Will happily add on to the bowl winning streak while this team hopefully settles in.

*EDIT*
The D I'm oddly not worried about... maybe because they will probably never be that good ever again I'm just resigned to them being a regular MAC defense (mid) that occasionally plays up and down to the competition.

Last Edited: 7/22/2024 9:55:34 AM by M.D.W.S.T

Bobcat1998
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/23/2024 8:39:57 AM

cbarber357 wrote:

For some reason I am feeling an 8-5 or 9-4 after a bowl game this year.

I feel like our defense is going to be as good, if not better, than last year. Of course we'll miss our two big-time LB's but our defensive backfield is the best it's been in years and we did bring in some new blood. It will come down to how good Doggette, Dustin Johnson, Leake, Mack, Rice, Walker-Burgess and McNaboe are as they have experience at other schools. Fitting in with guys like Shay Taylor, Bradley Weaver and Bralen Henderson will be fun to watch.

Offensively the line needs to step up this year. Titsworth, Habinowski, Atkinson, Dennison--they've all been here. I really do believe in Parker Navarro if we get blocking and I think Rickey Hunt and Anthony Tyus are going to tear people apart. Our tight ends will be solid and our receiving corp will be fun to watch grow. We have some exciting guys with Dennis, Pugh, Rodarte and Owen joining Hendricks and Harris.

And don't forget that our special teams is pretty solid.

Eight wins and I will be overjoyed!

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/24/2024 1:13:24 PM

Bobcat1998 wrote:

I feel like our defense is going to be as good, if not better, than last year.

Last year OU was ranked 5th... in the country... in scoring defense. 4th in yards allowed. Just behind Penn State, Michigan, and Ohio State.

You think they're going to be Top 3? In America?

Bartender, I'll have two of what he's having.

Bobcat1998
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/26/2024 10:02:03 AM

M.D.W.S.T wrote:

Bobcat1998 wrote:

I feel like our defense is going to be as good, if not better, than last year.

We are certainly going to miss our LBs but I do believe our defensive backfield is going ballhawk and we could lead the nation in INTs. Of course my prediction boils down to approximately 8 to 10 new faces on the D (Rice, McNaboe, Leake, Johnson, Doggette, Hale, Mack, Collier and Walker-Burgess) making an impact. But our depth is certainly the best it's been. I love how you took me literally. I don't expect a top 5 defense but we can maintain the level of excellence at least.

brucecuth
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RE: Ohio Vegas win total is 6.5

Posted: 7/29/2024 1:36:50 PM

Total down to 6 at BETMGM, with the over -125. Better option is Draft Kings, same number -105. I think 'Cats can do 5 without much difficulty. If you think 6 is easily attainable, then this is basically a free bet, since 6 is a push and you're bet is refunded.

Last Edited: 7/29/2024 1:40:27 PM by brucecuth

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