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Topic: Week 13 MAC schedule

Topic: Week 13 MAC schedule

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Pataskala
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Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/13/2025 6:18:43 PM

Last Edited: 11/15/2025 5:56:54 PM by Pataskala

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Ted Thompson
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/13/2025 6:26:50 PM

Which conferences have the strongest home-field advantage in conference games?

Congrats to the Pac-12 on a perfect 1�0 start, but it�s the @MACSports that stands out. Home teams win nearly 70% of the time! pic.twitter.com/QuFW2nrAUW
— Sickos Committee (@SickosCommittee) November 13, 2025

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TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/13/2025 7:05:22 PM

Games Ohio needs:

11/15: Ball St over EMU (guarantees BSU finishes above BG)

11/18: UMass over Ohio (guarantees winning Ohio season)

11/18: Akron over BG (guarantees BSU finishes above BG)

11/22: Toledo over Ball St (knocks BSU from MAC contention)

If Ball State wins against EMU then Akron/BG doesn't matter.

If Ball State loses against EMU then Toledo/BSU doesn't matter.

Last Edited: 11/13/2025 7:05:53 PM by TWT

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TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 1:34:04 PM

Eastern Michigan up 17-3 on Ball State at the half. According to my probability calculator that gives them a 90.89 percent chance of winning the game. From the eye test it looks higher than that as Ball hasn't been able to capitalize on short field opportunities.

https://calculatorshub.net/sports-calculators/football-wi... /

TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 4:14:33 PM

After the 11/15 game:

Tuesday November 19
UMass (0-6, 0-10) at OHIO (4-2, 6-4) [Ohio for win #7]
WMU (5-1, 6-4) at Northern Illinois (2-4, 3-7) [NIU waking up is good]
Akron (3-4, 4-7) at BG (1-5, 3-7) [Akron W kills Toledo tie-breaker]

Wednesday November 19
MOFO (4-2, 5-5) at Buffalo (4-2, 5-5) [Miami W helps in 3 way tie w/ CMU]
CMU (4-2, 6-4) at Kent State (3-3, 4-6) [Kent State has a 50% chance here]

Saturday November 22
Ball State (3-2, 4-5) at Toledo (4-2, 6-4) [Ball St but slim chance]

SBH
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 4:27:03 PM

Our loss at Ball State was/is inexplicable and inexcusable.

colobobcat66
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 5:25:03 PM

SBH wrote:

Our loss at Ball State was/is inexplicable and inexcusable.

And most likely cost us an opportunity to repeat as champions. We certainly aren�t deserving of anything after that effort/non-effort.

STVCastle
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 5:39:33 PM

TWT wrote:

If I'm processing the math right here (and I hope I am lol):

*Ohio wins out
*Akron win @ BG lets us off the hook with Toledo?
*Either Miami winning or Kent State winning helps us
*Ball State beating Toledo would also help

TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/15/2025 6:07:31 PM

STVCastle wrote:

TWT wrote:

Yes.

Pataskala
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/18/2025 10:52:03 PM

Tuesday finals:

OHIO 42-UMass 14
WMU 35-NIU 19
Akron 19-BG 16

WMU moves to 6-1; Ohio is 5-2.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/18/2025 11:58:42 PM

Lines for the remaining games this week.

Central Michigan (-8.5) at Kent St.
Miami (-1.5) at Buffalo
Toledo (-27.5) vs. Ball St.

For those who expect Toledo to crush CMU I would consider the possibility of Kent State pulling it out against them tomorrow night, if we are to believe CMU is more of a pretender than a contender. They lose to Kent and Ohio once again controls its destiny for Detroit.

Andrew Ruck
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 7:52:23 AM

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

Andrew Ruck
B.B.A. 2003

CatFud
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 4:31:39 PM

SBH wrote:

Our loss at Ball State was/is inexplicable and inexcusable.

Not to offer an explicable excuse, but I do wonder about the effects of the rugged 3 x P5 schedule to start the season. The team didn't really overwhelm Gardner-Webb and BGSU at home, and finally ran out of gas at the half on the road against Ball St. ? They've had a decent run after the subsequent bye week.

Last Edited: 11/19/2025 4:35:41 PM by CatFud

TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 5:20:19 PM

CatFud wrote:

SBH wrote:

Our loss at Ball State was/is inexplicable and inexcusable.

Ask Bobcat1996 this one.

Victory
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 6:51:34 PM

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

As we were discussing a week ago, we wanted BG to tie BSU in the standings for tiebreaker help. Now that Akron has beaten BG this can't happen. We need either Kent State or Ball State to win this week or we will be eliminated before the final game. We lose the tiebreaker to both Toledo and CMU now and they both cannot lose in the final week as they will play each other.

The way Toledo's offense has gone off at home this year they are a 27 point favorite against BSU. The best bet is beat Buffalo, hope Kent holds serve at home against CMU, and hope CMU holds serve at home against Toledo.

Last Edited: 11/19/2025 6:56:20 PM by Victory

colobobcat66
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 9:52:15 PM

Victory wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

They keep saying tonight with Miami that if they win out and tie with us that would have a tiebreaker with us because of their win over western. I missed the other teams involved though. Maybe Toledo

TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 9:53:26 PM

Ohio is in the race through the Buffalo game as Toledo/CMU kicks off a day later.

Victory
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 10:07:48 PM

TWT wrote:

Ohio is in the race through the Buffalo game as Toledo/CMU kicks off a day later.

This is incorrect. CMU is about to beat Kent. If Toledo beats Ball State then I am almost positive we are eliminated. We would lise the tiebreakers to both at that point and since they play each other one has to win.

Victory
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 10:08:38 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

Victory wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

They keep saying tonight with Miami that if they win out and tie with us that would have a tiebreaker with us because of their win over western. I missed the other teams involved though. Maybe Toledo

Miami wins a three way tie with Ohio and Toledo.

Mike Johnson
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/19/2025 11:36:11 PM

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Victory wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

They keep saying tonight with Miami that if they win out and tie with us that would have a tiebreaker with us because of their win over western. I missed the other teams involved though. Maybe Toledo

Miami wins a three way tie with Ohio and Toledo.

Ancient memory. It might date to 1969 and the first year of the state playoffs. In that first year, relatively few teams qualified for the playoffs. In the Northern Ohio League, Shelby, Tiffin Columbian and Norwalk all finished the regular season at 9-1. They "round-robined," Shelby beating Norwalk, Norwalk beating Tiffin and Tiffin beating Shelby. I have no recollection how points were awarded, but only Norwalk qualified for the playoffs - and won a state championship.

http://www.facebook.com/mikejohnson.author

TWT
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/20/2025 12:12:16 AM

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Victory wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

They keep saying tonight with Miami that if they win out and tie with us that would have a tiebreaker with us because of their win over western. I missed the other teams involved though. Maybe Toledo

Miami wins a three way tie with Ohio and Toledo.

Not even if it was the case that all 3 teams finished 1-1 against each other.

Ohio defeated Miami
Miami defeated Toledo
Toledo defeated Ohio

Then it would go down to performance against common opponents. Miami would have the edge on Ohio since they beat WMU. Miami however did not play BG so then it moves to the next tie-breaker which is analytics and Toledo has that by a large margin over Miami.

But they didn't all finish 1-1.

Toledo 1-0
Ohio 1-0
Miami 0-2

In this case Toledo & Ohio are still unconnected but Miami is not. They lost to each of the other teams. For the next tie-breaker Toledo & Ohio both have two losses over common opponent. Then Toledo has the edge over Ohio on analytics.

Miami has no tie-breaker over Toledo and could only of had a tie-breaker over Ohio in the event of a connected 3 way tie which doesn't exist.

Pataskala
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/20/2025 12:17:29 AM

Wednesday finals:

MOFO 37-Buffalo 20
CMU 28-Kent 16

So now:

WMU is 6-1
OHIO, CMU, and MOFO are 5-2
Toledo is 4-2
Buffalo is 4-3

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Victory
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/20/2025 7:54:03 AM

TWT wrote:

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Victory wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

They keep saying tonight with Miami that if they win out and tie with us that would have a tiebreaker with us because of their win over western. I missed the other teams involved though. Maybe Toledo

Miami wins a three way tie with Ohio and Toledo.

Yes, I think you must be correct. I am not the only person who heard ESPN say that however. At any rate, ad we were going through the analysis a week ago some on here analyzed how to win a tiebreaker against Toledo. We now cannot. This is backed up by Grant Kiefer's article on WOUB. So now its BSU beats Toledo, Ohio beats Buffalo, Toledo beats CMU at Toledo. Not likely. Maybe 1% or so.

Last Edited: 11/20/2025 7:54:48 AM by Victory

Victory
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/20/2025 9:14:18 AM

Victory wrote:

TWT wrote:

Victory wrote:

colobobcat66 wrote:

Victory wrote:

Andrew Ruck wrote:

I could definitely see Kent knocking off CMU...their trajectory this season has been impressive.

They keep saying tonight with Miami that if they win out and tie with us that would have a tiebreaker with us because of their win over western. I missed the other teams involved though. Maybe Toledo

Miami wins a three way tie with Ohio and Toledo.

After reading the details of Kiefer's article, I think that we did hear that from ESPN and they are correct. The three way head to head, I think, only applies if all teams play each other. If you have a situation where one team is 1-0, on 0-0, and one 0-1, it might not be fair to the 0-0 team to promote the 1-0 team. In THIS case if Toledo and Ohio HAD played each other Miami would lose the tiebreaker no matter who won. So it feels like you should eliminate Miami and then apply the Tiebreaker between Toledo and Ohio which is now Toledo's based on their higher ranked won over Ball State. But apparently head to head is bypassed and Miami wins based on their highest common opponent win over WMU.

People are like a championship game "settles in on the field". We can settle it with tiebreaker nonsense just as fairly. Playing a game after a tiebreaker is no more of a hocus pocus way than applying it after all games are played. IMO, it a situation where a team in alone in first place settling it on the field is just awarding the title to WMU and avoiding this nonsense. I know that can't happen because of TV contracts and such but I think saying this sort of convoluted tiebreaker thing in this situation is more fair because we are "settling in on the field" is insane. Sure the championship game was the most fair thing last year with a two way tie but they'll be a clear first place this year and not a clear second.

Last Edited: 11/20/2025 4:47:22 PM by Victory

STVCastle
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RE: Week 13 MAC schedule

Posted: 11/20/2025 1:35:59 PM

Trying to apply simple logic here as best I can:

Toledo, Ohio, and Miami are tied at the end.

Toledo and Ohio both beat Miami.

Toledo and Ohio didn't play each other.

BUT because Miami beat WMU, the 1st place team, they get the special Golden Ticket in the event of a tie with the 2 teams that did beat them.....

In what world does this end result become logical?

Just take Miami out of the equation.

MAC leadership should get roasted for this two-faced tiebreaker system.

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