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Topic: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Topic: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

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Victory
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Member Since: 3/10/2012
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Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/17/2025 10:39:45 PM

I wouldn't have been all that surprised to see that before we lost a few defensive starters in the last few weeks. I certainly didn't expect it now.

Ohio +260
Toledo +270
Miami +600
Buffalo +700
Bowling Green +700
Northern Illinois +1000
Western Michigan +1200
Central Michigan +1800
Eastern Michigan +3000
Akron +4000
Ball State +7000
UMass +15000
Kent State +30000

MonroeClassmate
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/21/2025 11:47:02 PM

Victory wrote:

It seems weird to see that Akron is 26000 ahead of Kent--can the Flashes really be that bad?

Bobcat1996
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/22/2025 8:12:29 AM

Kent's football program is not in good shape. Really bad.

M.D.W.S.T
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/22/2025 9:08:35 AM

Interesting.

I would've said and still say Miami.

I certainly think we're gonna be solid - but like I said before, it'll really be a test of staying together and continuing to build positive momentum with a real chance to start 0-3. Especially when you consider we need to replace like 80% of production.

Diamond Cat
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/22/2025 9:05:01 PM

The new world will further emphasize the "who cares" about September games. Get our money and be hap. The players we are adding seem very solid. Our new world challenge is coming together as a team of strangers by the time conference play begins.

It is a thin line between getting our A$$ kicked in September and keeping the focus on all we can deal with - the conference season. From my view, we destroyed Fiami in a once in a decade+ scenario. The magnitude of that whippin' lives forever in Ohio history. If we get in that exact scenario again, my money is on us. Bring it don't sing it.

greencat
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/22/2025 9:14:59 PM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

Kent's football program is not in good shape. Really bad.

A former sportswriter for Yahoo told me the other day that 40% of the FCS teams could beat Kent right now. I'm not sure what he based that on but the guy is very statistics oriented. YMMV

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/23/2025 6:17:06 PM

Just looking at Sagarin's 2024 ratings.

Kent would have been a 56 point underdog to the best team (Ohio State)
Kent would have been a 39 point underdog to the best FCS team (South Dakota St.)
Kent would have been a 6 point underdog to the 2nd worst FBS team (Southern Miss)
They would have been predicted to lose to about 2/3 of FCS teams.

I wouldn't think they would be rated anywhere near that bad going into this season by oddsmakers or computers because it is almost impossible for an FBS team to be that bad. Regression (progression?) to the mean is almost certain. But still, they are coming off of a really bad team.

Last Edited: 5/23/2025 6:18:28 PM by Victory

cc-cat
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/24/2025 11:35:00 AM

And we don't play Kent - but Florida St and Oklahoma play them in back to back weeks - wonder what the spreads will be.

Pataskala
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/24/2025 2:36:39 PM

They seem to be content with playing five home games and getting hammered in OOC payout games, even against G5 teams. They haven't had six home games since 2016, and the two OOC home games were NCA&T (a loss) and Monmouth (a win). The theory that you can draw talent by scheduling games vs big schools with huge stadiums just isn't working for them. They're sacrificing the football program to cash to keep the other sports programs afloat.

We will get by.
We will get by.
We will get by.
We will survive.

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/25/2025 10:58:09 AM

It still doesn't look like G6 win totals are up on the most major online sites but I did find this from sportsbetting.ag. AG extensions are Antigua and Barbuda.

Toledo 8.5
Ohio 7.5
Miami Ohio 6.5
Bowling Green 6.5
Buffalo 6.5
Northern Illinois 6.5
Western Michigan 5.5
Central Michigan 5.5
Eastern Michigan 4.5
Akron 4.5
Ball State 3.5
UMass 3.5
Kent State 1.5

Not surprisingly since we opened as basically co-favorites with Toledo we are a whole win behind them with the tougher non-conference schedule. A lot changes from year-to-year in the portal era and we changed coaches. Even though we are the defending MAC champions and the still the MAC favorite (barely) on several sites (Toledo is now the favorite on ESPN, DraftKings, FanDuel) it wouldn't take a lot of things going south for Ohio to miss a bowl. We don't get a free win vs. Kent. We'll likely have to win 5 MAC games to get to 6-6 and it is possible we might need to go 6-2 in the MAC to actually get 7 wins to assure a bowl invite.

Last Edited: 5/25/2025 11:05:22 AM by Victory

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/25/2025 11:09:59 AM

Another interesting fact is that some sites still allow you to bet on Akron at about 40:1. Some sites have Akron off the board and that site with the win totals directly lists them as ineligible. As far as I can tell, based on past precedent, they should be ineligible to appear in the MACCG but there doesn't seem to be an article on their APR post-season ban that states that directly.

Last Edited: 5/25/2025 11:24:41 AM by Victory

Bobcat1996
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/25/2025 2:26:56 PM

Victory wrote:

Agree Victory about your last few sentences. The non league schedule is brutal. Toledo, Miami and the Bobcats should be the conference favorites in most summer college football publications. Buffalo and Western Michigan on the road in November will be tough games for Ohio. However, several publications in 2024 had Miami, Toledo, NI and BG picked in the top four ahead of Ohio in the MAC. Sometimes those publications aren't exactly accurate.

Last Edited: 5/25/2025 2:36:22 PM by Bobcat1996

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/26/2025 9:50:29 AM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

Victory wrote:

Ohio was picked behind those teams in nearly every publication. We were picked ahead of NIU a few times. We were picked behind WMU about half the time and on some occasions picked behind CMU and EMU. We had the second highest loss of production from 2023 as anyone in FBS. I don't know this with 100% certainty but I'd guess that we had to highest loss of 2023 production to the portal of anyone. Really, putting Ohio around 5th showed respect to the staff in their history of putting together a good team.

https://stassen.com/preseason/consensus/2024.html

The coaches poll had us 5th behind Miami, Toledo, BGSU, & NIU.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2024_Ohio_Bobcats_football_...

If you track this over time the correlation between projected finish and final finish is obviously a very, very positive correlation. The prediction of any individual conference in any given year usually has a lot of error, however. But make no mistake, the team picked first wins a lot more often than the team picked 5th.

One individual conference last year, the Big XII, it looks like the correlation between projected and actual finish might even be slightly negative. I haven't run the numbers but is is obviously pretty close to neutral. And the betting odds this year on the Big XII are very spread out. There is no clear favorite.

And you know those Betting Odds aren't long term exploitable but any known system. If teams picked 1:1 didn't actually win approximately a little less half the time and 9:1 a little less than 1 in 10 times then all those betting sites wouldn't exist.

EDIT:
So, I had to do the math on this and the correlation between predicted finish and actual finish in the Big XII last year was indeed negative.

Last Edited: 5/26/2025 10:31:06 AM by Victory

FormerMember
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/26/2025 6:34:08 PM

Not surprised at all that Ohio and Toledo are the two MAC favorites right now. Even with all the talent OU has lost, we return the starting quarterback and coordinators from the defending MAC champs and a program that has won 31 games the past three seasons.

Everyone in the MAC is dealing with roster turnover on a yearly basis but not everyone is replenishing their rosters as well as Ohio has recently. The Bobcats are going to get the benefit of the doubt until we show bettors that we don't deserve it.

It's going to be a rough start to the season but this team can still win 7-8 games. I'm not going to predict this but would be amazing if they can steal a win against either Rutgers or West Virginia. That certainly would change the way we look at things heading into MAC play.

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/26/2025 7:18:31 PM

FormerMember wrote:

I'm wasn't arguing that we can't win 7-8 games. That seems like a fairly reasonable median expectation. Given the odds that seems to be the consensus of opinion out there.

What I was saying is 7.5 wins is on the very low end of what the win total for a MAC favorite would be. 6 wins might or might not get is into a bowl so if Ohio just slips down 1.5 wins from expectation we could miss a bowl.

Even though we have won 10, 10, and 11 the last three seasons 8 regular season wins, just above median expectations, would be a very good season. 8 wins probably means we either beat both WVU and Rutgers and go 5-3 in the MAC; beat 1 of them and go 6-2 and could possibly, with some luck, be in the MACCG; or go 7-1 with an excellent chance at the MACCG. Any of those results would be a very nice season. If we made the MACCG we'd have a chance a back-to-back titles and with a MACC a fourth straight 10 win season would still be possible with a bowl win.

Last Edited: 5/26/2025 7:18:59 PM by Victory

FormerMember
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/26/2025 10:08:44 PM

Victory wrote:

FormerMember wrote:

No worries, wasn't arguing with you. Saw the start of the thread and just wanted to say my thoughts.

It's crazy looking back but our O/U was 6.5 last year I believe which shows the level of variance that can happen. I'd probably put money on the under right now with the O/U at 7.5 but I still expect them to go bowling.

With the amount of teams that play in bowl games now, I think Ohio would go to one at 7-5 or 6-6. I'd hope with Navarro returning at QB that they'll go at least 6-2 in MAC play but we'll see!

Last Edited: 5/26/2025 10:11:01 PM by FormerMember

cc-cat
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 5/28/2025 7:09:00 PM

ESPN REVIEW

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/45344221...

Bobcat1996
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/3/2025 1:13:30 PM

ESPN FPI odds to make playoffs among group of five were Boise, Tulane, UNLV, Memphis, Liberty and Toledo sixth best odds. No other MAC team in top ten group of five for playoff odds. Top five overall for the national title were Texas, Georgia, Ohio St, Bama and Penn St. SEC had 11 of top 19 schools and Big Ten had four of top 19.

BillyTheCat
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/5/2025 10:47:18 PM

Bobcat1996 wrote:

What do the preseason blindfolded dart throwers know? When was the last time they were right on the MAC?

OhioCatFan
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/6/2025 12:09:08 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat1996 wrote:

What do the preseason blindfolded dart throwers know? When was the last time they were right on the MAC?

1953?

The only BLSS Certified Hypocrite on BA

"It is better to be an optimist and be proven a fool than to be a pessimist and be proven right."

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colobobcat66
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/6/2025 12:39:37 PM

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat1996 wrote:

What do the preseason blindfolded dart throwers know? When was the last time they were right on the MAC?

They know that Ohio is playing a very tough schedule and the probability of us losing at least 2 out of conference games is very high. If we lose at least 2 of those games it seems to me that it would be extremely unlikely that we would get a playoff bid. If Ohio would go undefeated in conference, we�d have to hope everybody else craps the bed along the way.

FWIW - Toledo plays Kentucky and Washington St and Miami plays Wisconsin and Rutgers and UNLV

Last Edited: 6/6/2025 4:40:55 PM by colobobcat66

L.C.
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/6/2025 4:12:16 PM

colobobcat66 wrote:

But, if Ohio is good enough to actually deserve a playoff bid, they will probably go 4-0 anyway, or at least 3-1 with a one close loss, so no reason to worry about what happens as far as a playoff bid if they go 2-2 or worse.

Last Edited: 6/6/2025 4:13:21 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/7/2025 10:01:24 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat1996 wrote:

What do the preseason blindfolded dart throwers know? When was the last time they were right on the MAC?

1953?

I had to check because I knew it had been at least before the pandemic. It has been a very long time since the preseason favorite won. The last was Toledo in 2017. I'd guess that is the longest streak in FBS.

colobobcat66
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/7/2025 11:20:51 AM

Victory wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

BillyTheCat wrote:

Bobcat1996 wrote:

What do the preseason blindfolded dart throwers know? When was the last time they were right on the MAC?

1953?

And I�d guess the MAC is the most balanced league overall if you throw out the bottom 2-3 teams. What is the record now- 5-6 different champs in a row.

Victory
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RE: Ohio is the MAC favorite right now

Posted: 6/7/2025 11:26:57 AM

Anthon review

https://athlonsports.com/college-football/mac-football-20...

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