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Topic: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Topic: Which states acted on a timely basis?

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L.C.
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Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/3/2020 9:37:21 PM

Some states took actions before things got out of hand, and others acted once their state was reaching crisis. Those that acted effectively are seeing bigger drops in case growth than those that haven't been effective. Still others did stupid things, like not cancelling Mardi Gras (but we won't mention any names). Here's a list of the cases per million population as of today, and their average case daily growth rate over the last 3 days, and the 3 before that:
New York: 5306, up 11% per day, down from 12% the three days prior
New Jersey: 3359, 17% from 19%
Louisiana: 2214, 25% up from 16%
Mass: 1508, 16% unchg
Conn: 1376, 16% from 27%
Michigan: 1274, 19% up from 18%
DC: 1066, 15%, from 17%
Washington: 917, 8% unchg
Colorado: 724, 12% from 13%
Illinois: 701, 14% from 20%
R.I.: 671 13% from 27%
Penn: 658, 19% from 21%
Vermont: 627, 10% from 11%
Idaho 566, 24% from 26%
Georgia 563, 13% from 19%
Indiana 513, 17% from 20%
Nevada 492, 11% from 21%
Florida 478, 15% from 18%
Delaware 464, 12% from 14%
Maryland 456, 18% from 19%
Mississippi, 456, 13%, up from 12%
Tenn: 451, 9% from 16%
New Hamp: 397, 14% from 19%
Utah 388, 12% from 14%
Missouri 344, 17% up from 16%
S. Carolina 330, 16% from 18%
Wisc 329, 12%, up from 11%
Maine 322, 12% from 13%
California 311, 13% from 14%
Alabama 309, 15%, up from 12%
Ohio 283, 14% from 16%
Wyoming 286, 11% from 12%
Okla 249, 20% up from 14%
Montana 245, 10% from 15%
Arkansas 244 12% up from 8%
Arizona 242, 11% from 18%
Virginia 237, 17% from 19%
New Mexico 236, 16% up from 15%
N. Dakota 228, 12% from 14%
Hawaii 225, 12% from 14%
Iowa 221 12% from 18%
N. Carolina 218 14% unch
Kansas 213 13% down from 18%
Oregon 213 9% from 13%
S. Dakota 213 20% up from 16%
Alaska 207, 8% down from 12%
Texas 195, 15% from 16%
Kentucky 186 12% from 14%
Nebraska 145 16% from 22%
Minnesota 140 8% from 12%
W. Virginia 132, 13% unchanged

As you look at it, it is clearly not a partisan issue. There are "red" states doing well, and "blue" states doing well, and "red" states doing poorly, and "blue" states doing poorly. Most states have effectively reduced social contact and are seeing slower growth, but a few states are seeing faster growth, often because of something stupid they have done, or are doing.

On the other hand, most states are increasing testing, and as they do, you expect to see faster reporting of cases, which makes the results even more notable for the states that are seeing significant declines.

I'll call out Washington as a state that took effective action early, and while they started out behind, they have cut the growth rate to 8% a day.

As another example of action/reaction, S. Dakota has refused to take any action because they have a low number of cases. They still have a low number of cases, but the growth rate is increasing. In Oklahoma, the Governor or Lt. Governor made a point of not following social distancing, and emphasizing that Oklahoma was open for business. They also have a fairly low case rate for now, but it is now growing quickly. Another state decided to not cancel Mardi Gras, and they have a real problem now, both a high number of cases, and a very, very high rate of growth.

Ohio looks pretty good on this chart. For having some very dense cities, they have a moderate number of cases, and they are slowing the growth rate.

And, when I get to the bottom of the chart, I have to wonder if moonshine is a cure? ;)

If your state is doing well, congratulations. If not, I hope your governor and or mayors see the light before they end up in the plight of NYC.

Last Edited: 4/3/2020 9:46:40 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/3/2020 10:06:47 PM

And, I'll ask another question. Will Covid19 slow down for the summer? Here is the average daily growth rate for various parts of the world over the last week:

Northern Climates:
Former USSR +18% a day
N. America +15% a day
Europe +8% a day
Asia +2% a day

Warm Dry Climates:
N. Africa +12% a day
Middle East +10% a day

Equatorial/Tropical Climates:
Caribbean +13% a day
Central America +11% a day
Africa +10% a day
S. Asia +9% a day

Southern Hemisphere
S. America +13% a day
Australia/Pacific Islands +10% a day

My take is that the growth rate in the Northern Climates was running more like 20-25% a day until they took steps to control it, while the rates are running about half that in the warmer climates. If we can control it down to 10-12% now, then perhaps it will drop even more as we head to summer.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 8:33:09 AM

At the risk of getting this thread bumped like the last one, it is clearly a philosophical issue which in many if not the majority of cases, mirrors the party affiliation of the state's voters. As for Mardi Gras, it was over long before anyone in the US had any idea how serious this was and a full week before The Arnold was cancelled.

I've posted this before but just take a look at this social distancing scorebord.

https://www.unacast.com/covid19/social-distancing-scoreboard

greencat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 9:42:45 AM

It doesn't just hit large cities (obviously)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/a-funeral-sparked...

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 11:20:57 AM

Alan, I'll repeat. This is a health issue, not a partisan issue. There have been people who did and said idiotic things on both sides. If you need a Democrat for an example, Bill Deblasio fits.

As far as the general acceptance of social distancing, I think that you will find that it is highly correlated to the severity of the situation. In a state like New York, where they have a disastrous situation, the people aren't stupid. They can see how bad it is, and know that they better stay home, and that's not a function of party. In other states the infection rate is low, and the people see that, too, and run a few more errands. Again, that's not a function of party, but of the situation.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 12:09:02 PM

LC a close analysis of that map I posted does not bare that out. For example, Georgia and Louisiana have some of the biggest numbers and the lowest stay at home statistics. Anyone who is acting like business as usual just because no one in their area has it is just plain stupid.

UpSan Bobcat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 12:46:05 PM

Here's a map that gives an indication of how much people are staying home based on cell phone data:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/02/us/coronav...

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 1:38:25 PM

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

MonroeClassmate
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 4:56:16 PM

Summer/winter

Is it true that humidity has a greater role then temperature?

In a dry environment, the droplets of a virus will stay in the air longer and travel farther distances from the infected. When the air is heavy with moisture, the droplets do not travel far before heading towards the ground. Thus, less flu in the USA during the growing season.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 5:11:07 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

It's hard for me to take that article seriously because of the way it treats my own state, which is so misleadingly wrong as to be outrageous. It makes it sound like our governor is ignoring medical advice, and taking advise from questionable "advisors", and that we simply aren't doing things reasonably.

Since I live here, I know who his mysterious "advisors" are, they are the experts at the UNMC, probably the foremost experts on this, and other contagious diseases. When the US brought Ebola patents to the US, where were they sent? UNMC. When they brought COVID patients back from the Diamond Princess, and from Wuhan, where were they sent? UNMC. To portray his "advisors" as clueless is a gross misstatement of the situation.

Furthermore, I know that the governor has acted aggressively to curtail movement, to close down bars, restaurants, and schools, and I also know that he dis all those things very, very early in the process, far earlier than most states. I also know that he has acted to aggressively ramp up testing. We have the second lowest number of cases per million in the country, and the growth rate of cases has been dropping. We have extensive testing being done, and a very low positive ratio. Statewide we have 6% positive, and in my County, 2.7% positive. Some states have claimed numbers of cases that are way lower than reality because they have very high ratios of positive tests. For example, New Jersey has 40% positive. That's outrageous.

Our governor has a daily press conference, and has had for a month. He consistently promotes social distancing. Unlike some other conferences, he and his advisors all maintain distance, and the press is required to as well. People in the state have gotten the message and are complying. He, and his advisors, are also keeping their eyes on multiple models, and on our medical system capacity. Our cases are projected to peak in two weeks at a level that will be only half of our medical system's capacity, and we are projected to have 2x the number of required ventilators.

Yes, he has not issued a complete shutdown, but he is getting a lot done without one. He is very much in control of the situation, and we are very much ahead of the situation in almost all states. If our situation gets worse, and it justifies a complete shutdown, there is no question in anyone's mind that one will be ordered. Based on what I know, this is the safest place in the entire country. If only some states like New York, New Jersey, Michigan, and Louisiana had handled it half as well. They ignored it far, far too long, under-tested, and let things get way out of control, then had no other choice but a complete lockdown.

As an additional comment, I'm aware of how things are in the state of Washington as well, since I have a friend there. If you read that article, you might think that they are vastly different, with Washington locked down, and Nebraska completely open. In reality there there is almost no difference. The same sorts of stores there are open as the ones here. I have no familiarity with any other state, but I have no reason to believe that article has any validity at all, to be honest. It is so misleading about places I do know about that I have no reason to believe that anything about it is correct.

If I'm going to judge the states, I'm going to judge them not based on actions, but on outcomes. How many cases per million do they have? How low is there percentage of positives to total tests? Did they act before the case situation got out of hand? How well did they plan to provide the medical capacity? Are there case rates slowing down (while they continue to do a lot of testing)?

Last Edited: 4/4/2020 5:17:04 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 5:50:49 PM

L.C. wrote:

Alan Swank wrote:

LC - what's your explanation for this?

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/04/politics/republican-govern...

So those 8 governors are right and the other 42 are wrong? As for outcomes, of course big cities are going to have more cases and more deaths. There aren't too many 12 store apartment buildings in Nebraska. Where are most of the cases in Nebraska? In Omaha, of course. You and I have very different views on this so let's just let it go at that. Neither one of us is going to solve this horrible situation so let's just practice what I hope we both believe to be true - stay home as much as we can and if we have to go out, practice recommended health measures.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 7:29:47 PM

No, I'm not saying that those 8 are right and the other 42 are wrong. I'm saying that no governor is necessarily wrong, and that each one has different circumstances. I'm also saying that there the lines are not so neat between "social distancing" and "stay at home". The lines are blurry, and the two overlap. While we don't technically have a "stay at home" order, or a complete lockdown, we are encouraged to stay at home, and most are doing so. I found this website:
https://covidactnow.org /

It suggests that it is important that Nebraska go to stay at home no later than May 30th. I'm sure we will move up the Governor's scheduled levels of restriction long before then. He laid out a very specific plan for when to move to each successive level of restriction a month ago, and we have followed his plan so far. Which is better, a state that took decisive action a month ago, and which, as a result, hasn't had to go to a stay at home situation? Or a state which did nothing a month ago, ended up in a crisis, and has now implemented a stay at home order? I'll take the former.

Also, it's not just a matter of big cities. Is Idaho more urban than Nebraska? Are California and Ohio less urban than New Jersey?

Last Edited: 4/4/2020 8:37:39 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

BillyTheCat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 8:47:22 PM

L.C. wrote:

No, I'm not saying that those 8 are right and the other 42 are wrong. I'm saying that no governor is necessarily wrong, and that each one has different circumstances?

So, for clarification then, DeSantis was not wrong keeping partiers on the beach, and Georgia�s Governor is good opening his beaches and vacation towns?

Last Edited: 4/4/2020 8:49:07 PM by BillyTheCat

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/4/2020 10:28:09 PM

Any governor encouraging public gatherings is wrong. Thus, allowing Spring Break (or Mardi Gras) was clearly wrong. On the other hand, beaches and parks are a little trickier. Being outside is actually a good thing, as you get sunshine and Vitamin D, not to mention avoiding going stir-crazy. Being outside alone is one thing, whether on a street, in a park, or on a beach. Being outside in a crowd is different. Or is it? Why are almost no homeless people infected? They are outside all the time, and in groups? How quickly does sunlight deactivate virus particles? How low is the concentration outside? How much difference does wind make? Can you open the beach, but require social distancing, and still be safe?

There are more questions than answers at this point. I certainly don't know the answers. It will be easier to judge in retrospect. Any state that ends up in a situation where their hospitals are overcrowded, and where the death rate soars, however, has clearly failed their population. We already have several of those. Hopefully we will not have too many more.

States with the highest case growth today:
Delaware +31.8%
Pennsylvania +23.7%
Louisiana +21.4%
Puerto Rico +19.6%
Virginia +19.6%
District of Columbia +19.2%
West Virginia +19.0%
Vermont +18.5%
Oklahoma +17.3%

Overall, the US is making progress at flattening the curve:
3-26 +25.2%
3-27 +22.0%
3-28 +18.8%
3-29 +14.9%
3-30 +15.5%
3-31 +14.8%
4-1 +14.0%
4-2 13.9%
4-3 +13.2%
4-4 +12.3%

Unfortunately, the death rate is still rising, though not as fast as I feared (this is all deaths/all cases, which is lower than the final CFR will be, since if no more cases were reported after today, more of the existing cases would end up dying):
3-31 2.1%
4-1 2.4%
4-2 2.5%
4-3 2.8%
4-4 3.1%

Italy, by contrast, is up to 12.3%, Spain to 9.5%, France to 8.4%

Last Edited: 4/4/2020 11:39:45 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 8:07:14 AM

This goes a long way in explaining the catastrophe in Louisiana as well as why some states have much lower fatality rates.

https://www.americashealthrankings.org/learn/reports/2018...

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 10:20:19 AM

BillyTheCat wrote:

L.C. wrote:

No, I'm not saying that those 8 are right and the other 42 are wrong. I'm saying that no governor is necessarily wrong, and that each one has different circumstances?

So, for clarification then, DeSantis was not wrong keeping partiers on the beach, and Georgia�s Governor is good opening his beaches and vacation towns?

I read up on the Georgia order, and people are not to congregate in groups on the beach. They are to maintain 6 foot distances. Vitamin D would seem to be protective against most viruses, so being outside is most likely a good thing. Being 6 feet apart on a beach is certainly safer than being 6 feet apart inside.
That would seem to be a reasonable order.

That brings me back to a puzzling question. Why are almost no homeless people infected with this? Does it not spread efficiently outside? Is it that their high Vitamin D level gives them some immunity? I certainly don't have an answer.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

cc-cat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 11:49:28 AM

L.C. wrote:

That brings me back to a puzzling question. Why are almost no homeless people infected with this? Does it not spread efficiently outside? Is it that their high Vitamin D level gives them some immunity? I certainly don't have an answer.

curious as to what you�re basing the �homeless aren�t getting it� statement on?

greencat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 12:13:29 PM

cc-cat wrote:

L.C. wrote:

curious as to what you�re basing the �homeless aren�t getting it� statement on?

There was an article in the LA Times that says the homeless are indeed at risk and certainly are getting it.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 12:17:04 PM

I did a quick web search, and this is a sample of what I had been seeing:

fox news wrote:

...although health officials have yet to find any evidence of coronavirus among them, the population is considered extremely vulnerable and has suffered in the past from other disease outbreaks.

https://www.foxnews.com/us/coronavirus-update-homeless-cr...
It is taken as a given that they will be very vulnerable, but it hasn't yet been seen to the degree expected, for some reason.

Here's another link that indicates it is starting to affect the homeless in New York:
https://nypost.com/2020/03/24/coronavirus-in-ny-30-people... /

It would seem that it is now hitting them, but there was a delay, behind the general population.

Last Edited: 4/5/2020 12:28:47 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

cc-cat
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 12:52:39 PM

my sense is this is another area where the lack of testing is again leading to lack of knowledge. it is still difficult for most in the US to get a test. therefore it�s a good bet the homeless population (even those with symptoms) is hugely under tested and therefore under reported. so not so much a delay in getting the virus just a delay in observation and reporting.

Last Edited: 4/5/2020 12:55:03 PM by cc-cat

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 3:59:47 PM

cc-cat wrote:

Plus those two articles cited are a month and almost two weeks old in that order.

Last Edited: 4/5/2020 5:57:29 PM by Alan Swank

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 4:10:20 PM

L.C. wrote:

Here's a model that is probably more accurate. It's the IMHE model from the University of Washington. It gives a state by state projection for needed hospital beds by day, and beds available:
https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections?fbclid=IwAR1EJ...

Ohio is projected to peak on April 20-21, with a demand for 1030 ICU beds, and has 1238 available. However, the worst case scenario calls for up to 2k of ICU beds. For regular beds, they appear to have enough for the worst case scenario.

For Nebraska, the ICO peak is 215 of 232 beds. Again, the worst case scenario of 392 beds is not covered. They also appear to be in good shape for regular beds. Among the other states without shelter at home order, North Dakota and Arkansas are also not showing shortages. The other five without shelter at home are showing shortages, all of them small. I didn't look at all the states, but some that have a major crisis ahead include Michigan, New Jersey, Louisiana, and Connecticut.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

Alan Swank
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 9:54:08 PM

https://www.foxnews.com/us/nebraska-governor-coronavirus-...

Pretty clear statement on what needs to be done.

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/5/2020 11:01:04 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/nebraska-governor-coronavirus-...

Pretty clear statement on what needs to be done.

Here's a link to the Nebraska page for you:
https://nebraska.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index....

The state does have one area that is a concern, that being Hall County. That, incidentally, was the town where the doctors were that signed the petition. They have 45 cases there, out of 193 tests, a 23% positive ratio, far, far too high. Contrast that with Lancaster County, where I am. We have 18 positives out of 711 tests, or 2.5% positive, which is excellent. Douglass County, the largest, has 145 positives out of 2058, a 7% ratio, which is about where the state is as a whole.

If you compare cases per million:
New York: 5886
Hall County, Nebraska: 768
Nebraska Average: 166
Lancaster County: 53

I do have concern about what is going on in the Grand Island area, in particular, and Central Nebraska in general. The rest of the state seems to be following the governor's guidelines, and cases are declining.

We'll see what the governor has to say tomorrow. As I have said, he has laid out a specific roadmap, though I haven't been following it well enough to know what it is, and it may or may not be time for a statewide stay at home order. If it were me, I'd probably issue a stay at home order for Hall, Buffalo, Lincoln and Adams Counties, which would cover the central Nebraska towns of Grand Island, Hastings, Kearney and North Platte, which is the problem area. Grand Island appears to have a problem, and Hastings, Kearney, and North Platte are somewhat above the rest of the state, about the same level as Ohio. The rest of the state is in pretty good shape, and not showing much case growth at all, so I really don't see the reason to take additional step there. We'll see what he does though.

I do have to laugh a little, though, at the attention being given to Nebraska over this. The only state with less case/million than Nebraska is West Virginia, and they may pass Nebraska tomorrow.

By the way, the entire US had an outstanding day today, with only 8.1% case growth, far lower than the 12.3% yesterday.

Last Edited: 4/5/2020 11:04:14 PM by L.C.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

L.C.
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RE: Which states acted on a timely basis?

Posted: 4/6/2020 4:53:59 PM

Alan Swank wrote:

https://www.foxnews.com/us/nebraska-governor-coronavirus-...

Pretty clear statement on what needs to be done.

The Governors of Nebraska and Iowa had a conference call with Dr. Fauci. Once they went over with him all the steps they are taking here, Dr. Fauci realized that we are on the same page. While we don't have an official shelter at home policy, we have implemented most of the same things.

The Governor did voice particular concern about Grand Island, and he talked to the doctors who signed that letter, the mayor of Grand Island, and the Grand Island health department, and implemented five new steps for Grand Island, including a dramatic increase in testing, more contact tracing, more steps for the businesses who remain open, and more communication to the citizens about what they need to do to stop the spread. He also left open the possibility of a shelter at home order in the future, if one is necessary.

Keep in mind that while Nebraska does not have a full shelter at home order, most of the things in one were done a long time ago. We acted early, and we have mostly been shut down since March 7th, long before most states thought to act, and some things started before that. My revenue dropped dramatically 6 weeks ago, so I know it's been going on since late February.

�We have two ears and one mouth so that we can listen twice as much as we speak.� ― Epictetus

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