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Topic: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Topic: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

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TWT
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Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 2/17/2018 1:21:52 PM

A lot has been made about OSU's rise in admission standards the last 20 years. This has given OSU confidence to increase the freshman class size on campus from 6,000 students to 7,600 students in the past 10 years. If they continue to increase the freshman class size their system of attracting students based on increasing selectivity might collapse like a house of cards. Some of their rise in selectivity is also a generational thing from parents that attended private schools or smaller public schools so junior to be "different" picks attending a Big Ten school. As we know all know the next generation tends to look for something different than what the previous one did.

https://news.osu.edu/news/2016/08/22/once-again-ohio-stat... /

https://oesar.osu.edu/pdf/admissions/OSU_NewFreshmenProfi...

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
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2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
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TWT
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 2/17/2018 3:30:45 PM

I'm of the opinion that OSU is at the moment relying a lot on the USWNR rankings to attract out-of-state students (2,280 of 7,600) who can't get into a Top 40 rated school. An example family where the parents are living in suburban NJ who both attended private schools, didn't have kids until their mid 30's but now are looking at college. That would put them about 52 meaning they graduated undergraduate in 1988 when graduating from college was still an automatic ticket to the corporate ladder. They were able to get into management with a combined family income of say 200k. Helicopter parents, only 2 kids and willing to spend every last dime on them. The corporate ladder and housing bubble didn't quite work as well for graduates of 2008 or even 1998. They are the last of the of the baby boom white collar economy generation. The 29 ACT average at OSU is a bubble that is going to burst with increasing classes sizes and shifting demographics. Shifting generational dynamics. Unlike OU who has not benefited by the USNWR era of college selections OSU has a lot to lose in a backslide. The same goes for that football team which is riding the sports TV bubble. Bubble bursts and Horseshoe crowds could become as sparse as a Browns game.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 2/19/2018 10:48:30 AM

I don't see it.

For one thing, the Governor or state will never force OSU back into open admissions. That was the key with the Rhodes years. OSU's open admissions was never a naturally occurring thing. OSU was strengthening their admissions like the rest of the Big Ten schools in the late 50s and early 60s in anticipation of the baby boom generation, and that came to a screeching halt when Rhodes was elected and brought Millett on as the first Regents' Chair.

My background in all of this is having worked for a State Senator who (though he didn't chair it) essentially ran the higher ed subcommittee in the late 80s and early 90s. His educational background was out of state, so he really didn't have a dog in the fight, and he taught me to look at the system in terms of what was rational, efficient and sensible for the taxpayers and students rather than jockeying individual campuses for a better position as was the system that developed under Rhodes. Though I came on several years after OSU had officially moved to selective admissions, these were some of the primary arguments that they had been making in the early 80s.

OSU's first argument would be, you make us open admissions and all the faculty who bring in the research grants leave, and the billion dollars a year in external research funding ($14B/35K jobs in total economic impact to the state) starts to dry up. That research money doesn't end up at Ohio or Cincinnati or Toledo. It flows to Ann Arbor or Austin or Madison.

Their second is that you'll start to see a brain drain as many of the 30+ ACT kids that OSU keeps in the state will start to leave. During their open admission years, they still attracted a decent amount of them as did Miami, but they also showed real statistical evidence from every corner of the state as to how many 30+ high school graduates were choosing to leave the state, and when it was to a public university, it usually was to another Big Ten school. To bolster that argument, they had data showing a huge gap in how likely those "high achievement" kids who left the state for an out of state public were to return to Ohio versus how likely a 30+ kids at Ohio State was likely to stay in Ohio after graduation.

Third is that it will hamper attracting business to the state. That's a more Columbus-centric argument, but one that would resonate considering that OSU's presence was cited as a key factor in Columbus making the Amazon finalist list. I can just see the interview with the OSU President. "Ohio is finally starting to develop a real tech sector to its economy, and you're talking about gutting the reputation of the state's Berkeley!" As an added bonus, he literally could talk about his experience as the Chancellor of a UC campus.

They had all these arguments lined up with tons of statistical evidence in the 80s to argue why the state's only AAU public university shouldn't be open admissions, and even many of Rhodes' old allies in the legislature didn't fight them on it.

Last Edited: 2/19/2018 1:40:51 PM by OUPride

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 2/19/2018 11:08:21 AM

So assuming that the state will never mandate open admissions, that brings us to what I take to be your central argument, that it will be some kind of natural bubble bursting. I think OSU's US News ranking helps them, but that's also their worst ranking. I'll leave out Forbes which is utterly ridiculous and literally designed to make public universities look bad. OSU keeps butting their head against the US News top 50 mark but can never crack it. If they were closer to the top 40, I'd put more stock in the argument that it's a primary factor in their admissions successes.

In any event, one of your arguments is actually on OSU's side. The size of their freshmen classes. If the quality of their applicant pool declines, they have the luxury to simply accept less kids. Trim that freshman class back to 6K, and that average ACT jumps to 31 or even 32. And in a bizarre twist, some of the things that OSU fought against in the Rhodes years (namely over-building the system and branch campuses) provides a very convenient outlet for any political blowback over the level of their admissions selectivity. There are many (too many) other options for the kids that OSU doesn't want. When Rhodes ordered that they accept everyone, there was no community college system, no branch campuses and only five four-year public campuses in the state.

Also, OSU does recruit out of state, but they haven't really gone all in on it the way Miami has. Miami literally has billboards all over the Chicago suburbs. OSU has stated that they think around 25% OOS is a healthy number that balances being a national university with being an Ohio public. They have a lot of room to get a lot more aggressive in attracting out of state students if they desire.

The other thing working in OSU's favor is the movement of a very few public universities (Michigan and UVA most notably) in a direction that almost makes them pseudo-private, and that's primarily driven by economics. We've all heard ad nauseam the Miami crowd crowing about how they're more like a private university than an Ohio public university. That's only true in the socio-economic background of their students. With actual regard to how the university operates, it's OSU that is actually achieving that model. Within the next decade, they'll probably cross the threshold where they're seeing more annual income from their endowment than they are from the state of Ohio. Either you have the big dick endowment swinging past your knees or you don't. OSU has the fifth largest public endowment in the country, and it just passed the $5B mark thanks to an energy deal that gave them an immediate $1.1B infusion with no strings attached. And this is the key more than their US News ranking. They have the money for merit aid that very few public universities in the country have. And I think their administration is aware of any upcoming challenges and unfavorable demographic trends because they've pledged to spend the billion dollar windfall primarily on "affordability" issues. The first result of that was the program they enacted similar to what Michigan did, which makes the school tuition-free for any in-state kid who qualifies for a Pell Grant. That's only going to cost them around $11M a year, so it ties up around $200M in endowment funds. That leaves $900M more for them to play with, and I'm certain that a large chunk of that will be devoted to merit aid and OOS student aid.

Last Edited: 2/19/2018 12:27:46 PM by OUPride

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 2/19/2018 11:11:38 AM

So no, I don't think waiting for OSU's admission bubble to burst is a strategy for Ohio. Ohio needs to think about how it can position itself within the system both on an undergraduate and graduate/research level, that allows it to separate itself from the Toledos and Kents. Waiting for a flood of 30+ ACT kids who no longer want to go to OSU isn't the answer because, as OSU made it very clear to the legislature a generation ago, that while Miami might skim off the douchebag crowd that's' always been their bread & butter, most of them will go out of state if OSU is not an attractive option.

Thinking about how to attract some of those branch campus kids might be a good start. I argued with some on here who didn't realize how many quality kids are ending up at OSU's branch campuses. In recent years, they've been getting around 75 30+ ACT kids there, which is literally 25% of the number that Ohio is attracting to Athens. The numbers of 26 to 29 kids is in the hundreds. That's a prime group of students that Ohio should be trying to convince to come to Athens and start their real college experience in year one rather than waiting a year or two and taking their chances on a transfer application.

Last Edited: 2/19/2018 1:46:08 PM by OUPride

TWT
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/1/2018 7:17:20 PM

Thanks for the contribution it was good reading. Some of the countermeasures for OSU you've mentioned like once again constricting freshman class size down to 6,000 students if demand tapers off are possible in theory but really not on the table since they built new dorms to support a larger freshman class size. OSU is too big. Every aspect of it down to the FB stadium. At least with Michigan they have a sunken stadium so it appears from the outside that its 75,000-80,000 seats. I have a woman I work with who said there was no way she was going there, its too big. She ended up going to Columbus St. and sent her daughter to Bowling Green. OSU isn't the type of place that helps you as an undergraduate socially or career wise. Miami can do that for you more as a greek school but it to lacks national cachet. Business school while very good at Miami won't get you into Wall Street. OU with its College of Communications is more nationally connected. Obviously it depends on major somewhat, a couple of fields favor Miami over OU. OSU has money & resources but is an Orwellian place to spend 4 years with everything so large scale. They are still charging those pell grant qualifying families room & board if the tuition is free. Room & Board is now a larger cost than tuition at universities. OU is offering breaks on tuition depending on ACT scores so they'll be able to pick up 27-29 kids at almost free tuition where they'd pay full at OSU. For most college shoppers I do think it starts and ends with board scores as to determining what level a college is and unfortunately OU fell behind in the merit aid era to the point where its difficult to attract top students who want to go to an already 29-30 ACT average school.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

TWT
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/1/2018 7:31:33 PM

OUPride wrote:

Thinking about how to attract some of those branch campus kids might be a good start. I argued with some on here who didn't realize how many quality kids are ending up at OSU's branch campuses. In recent years, they've been getting around 75 30+ ACT kids there, which is literally 25% of the number that Ohio is attracting to Athens. The numbers of 26 to 29 kids is in the hundreds. That's a prime group of students that Ohio should be trying to convince to come to Athens and start their real college experience in year one rather than waiting a year or two and taking their chances on a transfer application.

The OSU branch campuses are picking up a few students with decent boards however how strong was their HS course load? I'm pretty sure those branch campuses don't require a college prep course load. There may be a few who are attending because they are local to those towns and could have gone to another state school but are choosing not to for cost or whatever reason. Competing directly against OSU and Miami for students makes more sense which we don't seem to be very active on. They are in or very near the Columbus and Cincinnati markets. If OU was to market harder in Columbus and Cincinnati it would help. Present the school as an incubator for development within the state that should be seriously considered as an alternative to Miami/OSU and try and pull within equilibrium in admissions again.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/4/2018 8:44:44 PM

Uncle Wes wrote:

OUPride wrote:

I think it's safe to say that any kid scoring 26-29 (much less 30+) on the ACT had to take a college prep curriculum and do at least halfway decent in it. Do they have the GPA and class rank to get into Columbus? Possibly not, but that doesn't mean they wouldn't hit a sweet spot in Athens. As for taking on Miami and OSU head on, that's what Ohio has attempted for decades, and it hasn't worked. I'm not sure tweaking the approach here and there will change outcomes.

DelBobcat
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/5/2018 12:18:47 PM

OUPride wrote:

Uncle Wes wrote:

OUPride wrote:

I don't know if we have actually been taking Miami and OSU on though. When you drive around Southeastern Ohio you see billboards for OHIO, but here in Cincinnati they are non-existent. There are no commercials on TV and no sponsorships that I'm aware of. What if OHIO sponsored something at Reds games? Or put up billboards along I-71 between Cbus and Cincy? Or ran commercials during local news broadcasts? UC and Miami both run lots of commercials. How about some radio ads on local NPR stations in the big cities touting OU's reputation as a nationally recognized journalism school? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

BA OHIO 2010, BS OHIO 2010, MA Delaware 2012

OhioCatFan
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/5/2018 5:17:27 PM

DelBobcat wrote:

. . . How about some radio ads on local NPR stations in the big cities touting OU's reputation as a nationally recognized journalism school? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Or, Ohio's largest medical school with branch campuses in Dublin and Cleveland, the latter connected with the Cleveland Clinic.

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DelBobcat
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/6/2018 11:33:57 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

DelBobcat wrote:

. . . How about some radio ads on local NPR stations in the big cities touting OU's reputation as a nationally recognized journalism school? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Or, Ohio's largest medical school with branch campuses in Dublin and Cleveland, the latter connected with the Cleveland Clinic.

Definitely! I think it is great that OHIO has moved into the Cleveland and Columbus metros in a big way with the medical school. Let's tout that.

Relatedly, how wonderful would it be if we opened satellites of our business school or journalism school in the downtowns of the big cities? One thing I notice since moving back to Ohio is that UC and Xavier have no presence in Downtown Cincinnati. In Philly you can find offices, research facilities, and classroom space in Center City for Penn, Drexel, Temple, and Villanova. None of those main campuses are located in Center City but they all have very active presences. UC considered building their new law school building downtown and I think it is a huge missed opportunity that they didn't. Thousands of visitors come to Cincinnati every year for business, conferences, and tourism and never even think about UC or Xavier. It would be huge for OHIO to have our logo and presence front and center in the downtown areas of major Ohio cities. I recounted a story here awhile back about how a colleague was visiting colleges with his daughter but they never even considered OHIO. It wasn't even on her mind. We need to branch out of Southeastern Ohio and be on the top of people's minds in the major metros in the state.

BA OHIO 2010, BS OHIO 2010, MA Delaware 2012

OhioCatFan
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/6/2018 11:46:24 AM

Del, you might be interested to know that OHIO briefly (maybe five years, or so) had a dental school in Cincinnati. I don't recall the details, but somehow we bought, or were gifted, a private dental school, and then ran it for a few years, and graduated maybe 25 or so folks with a DDS degree. It became a financial burden and was closed. I sometimes wondered what kind of overall impact it might have had if OHIO had figured out a way to keep it open. The time period here is circa 1910.

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/6/2018 12:17:03 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Must have been before 1906. After that the Eagleson Bill blocked Ohio from having any doctoral or professional programs. I wonder if that was the catalyst to get rid of it.

DelBobcat
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/6/2018 2:17:06 PM

OhioCatFan wrote:

Fascinating stuff OCF! Thanks for sharing. I would definitely be interested in learning more about that.

BA OHIO 2010, BS OHIO 2010, MA Delaware 2012

OhioCatFan
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/6/2018 10:57:24 PM

My memory may be wrong about this, but I think I remember seeing a letter to the editor of the OHIO Alumnus where one of these graduates signed his letter John Smith, DDS, Class of '12. For some reason that sticks in my head. Perhaps it was '02, instead of '12. I first found out about this when Michel Perdreau, who worked at the archives in Alden Library, was doing research on this dental school and he showed me the documents that he dug up. I had never heard of it before. Michel was very good at finding obscure documents and piecing long-forgotten history back together. His real specialty was Southeastern Ohio African American history. It's a very rich history that most folks today know nothing about.

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/7/2018 9:41:29 AM

OhioCatFan wrote:

You may very well be right. Ohio might have been given a window of time to wind down or sell the dental school after Eagleson. The fact that it occurred somewhere around that time, leads me to believe that ending the school and Eagleson are somehow intertwined.

TWT
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/7/2018 10:32:48 AM

DelBobcat wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

DelBobcat wrote:

. . . How about some radio ads on local NPR stations in the big cities touting OU's reputation as a nationally recognized journalism school? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Or, Ohio's largest medical school with branch campuses in Dublin and Cleveland, the latter connected with the Cleveland Clinic.

If Ohio was built in Cuyahoga County it would have developed into one of the very top public universities in the country. From this angle getting into Dublin, Shaker Heights with the med school and the research campus in Beavercreek gifted by Russ is a good thing to be tied to some of the innovation centers of the state. If Athens itself was more of a draw with high end hotels for visiting the region that no doubt would help advertise it and once people are down here they can fall in love with the college. University once had somethig like that in the Ridges Framework but has since scaled back plans for developing the site.

Most Memorable Bobcat Events Attended
2010 97-83 win over Georgetown in NCAA 1st round
2012 45-13 victory over ULM in the Independence Bowl
2015 34-3 drubbing of Miami @ Peden front of 25,086

OUPride
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RE: Is OSU about to go through Rhodes era part II?

Posted: 4/9/2018 1:47:55 PM

Uncle Wes wrote:

DelBobcat wrote:

OhioCatFan wrote:

DelBobcat wrote:

. . . How about some radio ads on local NPR stations in the big cities touting OU's reputation as a nationally recognized journalism school? Seems like a no-brainer to me.

Or, Ohio's largest medical school with branch campuses in Dublin and Cleveland, the latter connected with the Cleveland Clinic.

Lotta ifs. Being in a 3-C city certainly would have helped, but a lot more would have needed to happen such as not allowing religious interference in the administration(a big sticking point that was key in blocking both Ohio and Miami from getting the Morrill Act designation) along with securing the things that would later go to OSU such as the land-grant status, the Eagleson Bill protections and being funded under a separate funding bill than the other colleges.

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